Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
