Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
